Sign in
FE

Flutter Entertainment plc (FLUT)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 revenue grew 17% YoY to $3.79B; adjusted EBITDA rose 6% to $478M with adjusted EPS up 29% to $1.64, while net loss widened to $789M due to a $556M non-cash India impairment and a $205M Boyd payment .
  • Guidance cut: FY2025 revenue midpoint reduced to $16.69B and adjusted EBITDA to $2.915B (down $570M and $380M vs prior), reflecting customer‑friendly sports results in Q3/Q4-to-date, incremental Q4 sportsbook spend, FanDuel Predicts investment, Illinois wager fee tax, and India regulatory change .
  • US iGaming revenue surged 44% YoY; US sportsbook revenue fell 5% on NFL results and elevated competitor generosity; International revenue +21% YoY with SEA strength and M&A contributions (Snai, Betnacional) .
  • Launch catalyst: “FanDuel Predicts” (Dec) expands TAM in non‑betting states; management expects $40–$50M incremental EBITDA cost in Q4 and $200–$300M in 2026, aiming to build customer funnel ahead of sports betting legalization .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • US iGaming momentum: +44% revenue YoY; 27% GGR market share in Q3 supported by proprietary content (e.g., Huff ‘N Lots of Puff) and >500 new titles; live betting exceeded half of handle .
  • International scale benefits: revenue +21% YoY; SEA organic iGaming +24% (Italy online +46%, Turkey +65%) and strong progress integrating Snai; International adjusted EBITDA +10% YoY .
  • Management confidence and strategic expansion: “We are the clear number one operator in the US… launch of FanDuel Predicts… position us exceptionally well to capture new opportunities” — Peter Jackson, CEO .

What Went Wrong

  • Customer‑friendly sports results and elevated competitor generosity at NFL start pressured sportsbook: US net revenue margin down 80 bps; US sportsbook revenue −5% YoY; Q3 sports results adverse impact ~$45M revenue and ~$30M adj. EBITDA .
  • India regulatory shock: Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act forced cessation of real‑money operations; $556M non‑cash impairment; future APAC headwinds (2026 revenue −$250M, EBITDA −$90M) .
  • Cash flow and leverage: Q3 operating cash flow down 28% and FCF down 78% due to Boyd payment; net debt rose to $10.6B and leverage to 4.0x (3.7x including Snai) .

Financial Results

Consolidated Performance vs Prior Quarters and Estimates

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)3,665 4,187 3,794
Revenue Consensus Mean ($USD Millions)*3,7004,2163,871
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)616 919 478
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)16.8% 21.9% 12.6%
Adjusted EPS ($USD)1.59 2.95 1.64
Primary EPS Consensus Mean ($USD)*1.8872.1140.501
Net Income (Loss) ($USD Millions)335 37 (789)
Loss per Share ($USD)——(3.91)

* Values retrieved from S&P Global.

  • Q3 revenue missed consensus by ~$77M; adjusted EPS materially beat consensus (+$1.14) on non‑controlling interest credits and mix, despite sports results drag . S&P Global consensus comparisons above.
  • Sequentially, adjusted EBITDA margin compressed (Q2 21.9% → Q3 12.6%) due to sports results, Q4 investment pull‑forward, and regulatory/tax impacts .

Segment Breakdown (Q3 2025)

Segment Metric ($USD Millions unless stated)USInternationalGroup
Sportsbook Revenue783 982 1,765
iGaming Revenue530 1,369 1,899
Other Revenue55 75 130
Total Revenue1,368 2,426 3,794
Reportable Segment Adjusted EBITDA51 505 478
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)3.7% 20.8% 12.6%
  • US sportsbook margin headwinds: net revenue margin 7.4% (−80 bps YoY), while structural revenue margin rose to 12.9% (+10 bps YoY) with higher SGP penetration later in season .
  • International sportsbook net revenue margin 12.4% (−30 bps YoY) with 70 bps adverse sports results offset by lower promo spend; organic iGaming +10% .

KPIs

KPIQ3 2024Q3 2025
Group AMPs (‘000s)12,920 14,133 (+9%)
US AMPs (‘000s)3,211 3,476 (+8%)
International AMPs (‘000s)9,709 10,657 (+10%)
Group Handle ($USD Millions)17,002 18,555 (+9%)
US Handle ($USD Millions)10,037 10,653 (+6%)
International Handle ($USD Millions)6,965 7,902 (+13%)
Group Net Revenue Margin (%)10.1% 9.5% (−60 bps)

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious Guidance (Midpoint)Current Guidance (Midpoint)Change
Group Revenue ($)FY 2025$17.26bn $16.69bn Lowered
Group Adjusted EBITDA ($)FY 2025$3.295bn $2.915bn Lowered
US Total Revenue ($)FY 2025$7.58bn $7.17bn Lowered
US Total Adjusted EBITDA ($)FY 2025$1.245bn $0.935bn Lowered
US Existing States Adj. EBITDA ($)FY 2025$1.315bn $1.005bn Lowered
US New States Adj. EBITDA ($)FY 2025($70)m ($70)m Maintained
International Revenue ($)FY 2025$9.68bn $9.52bn Lowered
International Adjusted EBITDA ($)FY 2025$2.30bn $2.24bn Lowered
Corporate Overhead ($)FY 2025($250)m ($260)m Raised cost
Interest Expense, Net ($)FY 2025$535m $535m Maintained
Capital Expenditure ($)FY 2025$820m $820m Maintained
Share Repurchases ($)FY 2025$1bn $1bn Maintained
  • Drivers of reduction: Q3 performance, Q4 customer‑friendly sports results (~$170M adj. EBITDA impact Oct 1–Nov 9), Q4 sportsbook investment, FanDuel Predicts investment, Illinois wager fee tax treatment, India regulatory change .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 2025)Previous Mentions (Q2 2025)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
Next‑gen pricing & “Your Way”Launched; structural hold 14.1%; SGP penetration up 260 bps Added SGP+, profit boosts; live >50% of handle Broader NFL “Your Way” deployment; cashout activity +20% Expanding feature set
US iGaming strategyAMPs +28%; exclusive content; jackpots +42% revenue; 27% GGR share +44% revenue; exclusive titles; >500 new games Strengthening
NFL competitive dynamicsNot applicableFavorable sports results in June; margin expansion Elevated competitor generosity in Sept; transitory impact; maintained 47% NGR share Normalizing by Q4
NBA engagementPlans to enhance basketball Good playoffs engagement Strong early season; SGP mix +1,100 bps YoY; Amazon Prime partnership Improving
Regulatory/taxIL wager fee mitigation tool IL/NJ/LA taxes & Boyd savings IL wager fee now taxable; UK budget tax risk monitored Mixed headwinds
IndiaStrong India iGaming growth —India ban; $556M impairment; shift to free‑to‑play Negative
BrazilRe‑registration friction NSX acquisition; investment phase Record iGaming revenues via Betnacional; organic revenue −18% ex‑M&A Transition/investment

Management Commentary

  • “We are the clear number one operator in the US… strategic investments, including the launch of FanDuel Predicts and recent International acquisitions, position us exceptionally well to capture new opportunities and deliver sustainable, profitable growth.” — Peter Jackson, CEO .
  • “We’re very excited about prediction markets… disciplined CAC-to-LTV; aim to migrate customers when states regulate sports betting.” — Peter Jackson (Q&A) .
  • “Q4 has started very well… we’re updating our full‑year guidance reflecting sports results, increased U.S. sportsbook investment, FanDuel Predicts, and India.” — Rob Coldrake, CFO .

Q&A Highlights

  • FanDuel Predicts investment returns: $40–$50M incremental EBITDA cost in Q4 and $200–$300M in 2026; disciplined acquisition targets; potential market‑making under evaluation .
  • Competitive generosity: uneconomic offers at NFL start; FanDuel maintained discipline, later leaned in Q4; September NGR share 47% .
  • NBA strength: double‑digit handle growth; SGP mix improved >1,100 bps YoY; Amazon Prime integration .
  • Illinois wager fee strategy: reduced bet count, higher handle per bet; toolkit to mitigate high‑tax jurisdictions; IL fee treated as taxable in guidance .
  • Regulatory developments: India ban reaction and long‑term lobbying; Nevada license surrendered due to Predicts, limited impact given no B2C ops there .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 revenue: $3.79B vs S&P Global consensus $3.87B (miss) .
  • Q3 adjusted EPS: $1.64 vs S&P Global consensus $0.50 (beat) .
  • Q3 adjusted EBITDA: $478M vs S&P Global consensus ~$472M (in line to modest beat) .
    Note: Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • The underlying franchise remains strong (US iGaming, SEA/Italy, market shares), but near‑term sportsbook margin variability and incremental Q4 investment compress profitability; guidance reset reflects conservatism amid sports result noise .
  • FanDuel Predicts is a strategic TAM expansion into non‑betting states; expect 2026 investment drag with potential longer‑term funnel and cross‑sell benefits — monitor regulatory responses and early unit economics .
  • India ban is a clear negative; impairment is non‑cash, but APAC revenue/EBITDA headwinds persist into 2026–2027 — watch for policy evolution and mitigation via International mix .
  • Leverage elevated at 4.0x following acquisitions and Boyd stake buyout; management targets rapid deleveraging on profitable growth — sustained share repurchases ($1.12B to date) underscore capital return commitment .
  • Near‑term trading: catalysts include NBA strength, Q4 handle +10% to date, and moderation of competitor generosity; sports result normalization could drive margin recovery and sentiment stabilization .
  • Medium‑term thesis: scale, proprietary pricing/SGP innovation, and iGaming content advantage support margin expansion once sports variance reverts; watch UK tax outcome and Brazil integration trajectory .